Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
