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This surely should not continue. It makes no sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Defying Expectations

The Claret and Blue army arrived at Saturday's Premier League encounter at Chelsea aiming for a club record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and might have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea have shown vulnerability with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a baffling habit of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, the striker leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post after his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and it's undeniable the first goal had a large slice of good fortune. At the moment, though, Lady Luck seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Implausible Run

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a single goal. They have kept a shutout in just one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in only six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the advantage was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern should not, but observers have been saying that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will finally align with their performances or if their performances can improve to match the results.

This should not be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Trait: Resilience

Fighting back is not just a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; 18 of those were secured this term, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed nine goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a profound confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at changing games with his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple change. Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had struggled with few chances. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, strengthening the center and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's none before the changes; following them, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca struggled to react as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is more proficient at devising a tactical plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a happy habit of players producing moments of match-winning quality to alter games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him working the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring leitmotif. It was the winger who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it stepping up to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be viewed as in the title race, arguably more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major examination of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.